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Polaris Solar photovoltaic network news: In 2016, the photovoltaic industry experienced fierce market competition. In the New Year, the industry can not help looking forward to: what will be the landscape of the photovoltaic market in 2017?

A number of market analysts have predicted that the growth rate of the global photovoltaic market will slow down in 2017. According to EnergyTrend gold, the report forecasts for 2017 and will be nearly zero growth year on solar energy demand for high-speed development, or the region of China, America and Japan photovoltaic market will be a recession, the global glut could make reproduce price disorder storm in the second half of this year, not only components, a hierarchical polysilicon, wafers, cells, low prices are likely to new lows.

China, the United States and India are the top three demand countries

Liu Yujing, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, told the newspaper: "Preliminary estimates put the global new photovoltaic installation in 2016 at around 70GW. The growth rate of new installations will slow in 2017-2018 compared with the 2014-2016 period. "At the same time, the rate of new installations in the world's largest countries (excluding India) will gradually slow or even decline." She also noted that global demand has become decentralized this year, with more emerging markets starting to scale.

According to an analysis by EnergyTrend, the ranking of the top three demand countries will change this year due to unfavorable factors such as China's 2017 PV index is expected to be lower than that of 2016, a slight slowdown in the U.S. installation rush, and Japan's continued reduction in FIT policy. A rising India could displace Japan as the third largest demand country, according to Yannong Lin, associate research director at EnergyTrend.

Comprehensive industry analysis, 2017 photovoltaic installation is expected to be 28GW in China, 11GW in the United States, 9GW in India, 6.6GW in Japan, 5.2GW in the European Union, the total is 68GW. Among them, the market and policy changes in China, India and the United States will dominate the photovoltaic market next year. In addition, the Middle East, Latin America and other regions will continue to maintain growth.

The domestic "6-30" will still be the watershed

According to EnergyTrend, 2017 will be the first time after years of high demand growth that the PV market will stagnate, especially in the second half of 2017, when the industry will again face significant oversupply. However, due to the expansion plans of enterprises in 2017 will continue to roll out, the huge amount of new capacity will make the overall industry face serious challenges in 2017 and even 2018.

On December 26, 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission published the Notice on Adjusting the Benchmark Feed-in Price of onshore Wind Power for photovoltaic power Generation. It is certain that in the first half of 2017, there will still be a "6-30" rush for installation in China. However, industry analysts believe that the first half of this year will be weaker than the same period last year can not replicate the rush.

"In the first half of this year, there will still be tight supply and demand, and the domestic prices of photovoltaic cells and modules will still stabilize or even rise, but the global market price in the second half depends on the situation in the Asia-Pacific, the United States and Latin America," Qian Jing, vice president of JinkoSolar, told the newspaper.

Another analysis said that after June 30 this year, the price trend of PV modules will be similar to last year's trend, and the price will fall from June to September, leading to the suspension of production of many companies. A person in charge of photovoltaic enterprises told our reporter, the second half of the component price drop range may be about 10%.

However, the fourth quarter of this year is different from the fourth quarter of 2016. Due to serious periodic imbalance between supply and demand, prices of all industrial chains will recover slowly, and the room for price climbing is limited.

In addition, Qian Jing also told reporters, "for domestic photovoltaic enterprises, this year's priority is to maintain profitability, not like last year, in the second half of the market environment is not good on the price war, on the basis of profitability to reduce costs and increase efficiency, promote the sustainable development of the industry."

PERC and Black Silicon will significantly drive cost reduction and efficiency

With the continuous improvement of slurry, silicon wafers and cell technology in recent years, the average efficiency of cell wafers has been significantly improved. This year, the progress of photovoltaic product efficiency will still be a compulsory topic. At the same time, a number of industry insiders told reporters, due to this year or will appear in the stage of tight supply and demand, this year for enterprises to a certain extent will be more important topic, silicon material price reduction, polycrystalline diamond line + black silicon will be the main source of cost reduction.

In the background of technology gradually mature, PERC has become a representative of the competitiveness of the index product, with many manufacturers production, efficiency synchronous improvement, 2017 will become a year of PERC leap forward, mainstream PERC component wattage will be increased to 295-300W, production is also expected to double. According to the forecast, thanks to the high cost performance of PERC products and the continuous promotion of the "Leader" plan, the single crystal market share will continue to increase in 2017, especially in the second batch of 5.5GW "Leader" plan, the single crystal market share is expected to be close to 80%, coupled with the photovoltaic poverty alleviation, roof distribution and other preferred efficient products. This year, the single crystal market share in China will be close to 40%. In addition, with PERC's cost-effective expansion into overseas markets, the global single crystal share will rise from 23.5% in 2016 to around 32% in 2017.

In addition to PERC, black silicon technology in 2016 has also been closely watched by the industry, but because the domestic photovoltaic market in the second half of 2016 into a downturn period, the investment attitude of enterprises to wait and see, making diamond wire cutting with black silicon technology has not made considerable progress. In 2017, black silicon technology is still the biggest bottleneck of diamond wire cutting polycrystalline products, diamond wire cutting polycrystalline silicon sheet is imperative. It is expected that diamond wire cut polycrystalline silicon sheet is expected to accelerate the volume in the second half of this year.

In N type technology, although it has been a research focus, combined with "leader" for the good of efficient product marketing role, N type more and more enterprises in technology, but subject to N type equipment is more expensive, technical route, plus 2017 authors importance to some extent the above work, the high cost of n-type technology still unable to mass in a short time.

In addition, HJT, PERT, MWT and other technologies that gradually gained more attention in 2016 will continue to attack the niche market this year, and double-sided power generation products will continue to ferment with the complementary topic of fishing light and agricultural light.

In general, the periodical industry supply and demand imbalances and terminal market demand will cause the violent fluctuation in the second half of 2017 the market prices fall again, facing pressure to survive, photovoltaic enterprises need to improve product quality, while constantly authors and the PERC two-wheel driven with black silicon technology, photovoltaic industry will lead to continuous improvement and upgrading in 2017.

Global photovoltaic growth may slow in 2017