Recently, the first China Energy Forum "Energy Economic Situation Expert Forum" was launched in Beijing, and the report "Energy Economic Situation Analysis in 2016 and Outlook in 2017" was released at the same time. According to the report, energy consumption in 2017 will grow 1.1 percent year on year, with coal's share falling to 60 percent, natural gas and non-fossil energy increasing by 0.5 and 1 percentage point respectively, and the total share of clean energy rising to 21 percent.

Based on the report's analysis of the domestic energy economic situation in 2016, Lin Weibin, executive deputy director of the Energy Policy Research Center of the China Energy Research Society, pointed out that in 2016, China's energy production and consumption structure showed a big trend of transition to clean energy. In terms of the primary energy consumption structure, the share of non-fossil energy and natural gas consumption increased by 1.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points respectively, and the share of clean energy consumption approached 20 percent, while the share of coal consumption decreased by 1.7 percentage points. In terms of energy production structure, the share of non-fossil energy increased from 14.5 percent in 2015 to 17 percent, while the share of coal dropped below 70 percent. To this end, Zhou Dadi, executive vice president of the China Energy Research Society, said that the current energy industry's supply-side structural reform is the top priority of energy development, 2017 is a particularly critical year, in energy investment, especially the development of coal power should be more cautious.

Specific to the coal industry, the National Energy Administration, deputy director wu Yin also believes that the current coal industry development in the field of imbalance, the profit is divided, safety accidents, fixed asset investment continues to decline, in 2017, coal demand is expected to drop to about 3% lower than in 2016, the price of coal "high stability take", a sharp fluctuations is unlikely.

In the oil and gas sector, Zhang Yuqing, former deputy director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out at the conference that China's crude oil output was stable in 2016, while natural gas output increased rapidly. Correspondingly, the consumption growth of oil and natural gas is also stable and fast. According to preliminary estimates, oil and natural gas consumption in 2016 will be about 578 million and 210 billion cubic meters, respectively. At the same time, according to the 13th Five-Year Energy Development Plan, the proportion of natural gas consumption should reach 10% in the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Zhang Yuqing believes that "the realization of this goal may face great challenges". According to the target calculation, "by 2020, the natural gas consumption will reach about 350 billion. Since the completion of the West-East Natural Gas pipeline project, although the annual growth rate of natural gas consumption has exceeded 10%, in absolute terms, the consumption increase has exceeded 20 billion square meters in only two years. Considering the base of 210 billion square meters in 2016, Without strong support from stringent environmental and incentive policies, achieving the target will be challenging." In addition, on the international front, Zhang Yuqing predicted that in 2017, the international oil price will fluctuate around $40-50 / barrel, over $60 / barrel is unlikely, and the price of natural gas will also remain low.

Zhao Qingbo, chief economist of the State Grid Corporation, said China's power consumption growth is expected to pick up by 5.2% in 2016 due to factors such as high temperatures in summer and an increase in the number of leap years. With the substantial increase in installed capacity, the recovery of electricity consumption in the secondary industry and the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry and domestic residents, electricity demand will continue to grow by about 5% in 2017, and the total electricity consumption will approach 6.3 trillion KWH. On the other hand, in terms of power supply capacity, it is expected that in 2017, the country's newly installed power generation capacity is 140 million kW, a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, and the average utilization hours of power generation equipment is 3,043 hours.

Report predicts 21% of clean energy consumption in 2017